A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
